Eurostat publishes EUROPOP2025 population projections methodology (ec.europa.eu)

• EUROPOP2025 projections for 2025-2100 using cohort-component method
• Partial convergence assumption for fertility, mortality, and migration across EU
• 67% of Ukrainian refugees assumed to remain permanently in host countries
• Working-age feedback mechanism triggers additional non-EU immigration
• Alternative scenarios include zero net migration and lower fertility

"Eurostat released the methodology for EUROPOP2025, the EU's long-term population projections covering 2025-2100. Using the cohort-component method, assumptions for fertility, mortality, and migration are modelled with partial convergence across EU member states. The projections include a working-age feedback mechanism for migration and specific assumptions for Ukrainian refugees. They will inform the 2027 Ageing Report and EU fiscal sustainability assessments."