Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warns against large budget package as economy strong (fiscalcouncil.ie)

• IFAC says economy strong, does not need large fiscal stimulus; recommends smaller budget package than €9.4 billion
• Government spending overruns: current spending up 6.1% vs 1.4% budgeted; Education, Children, Justice up 7.5%
• Calls for a clear fiscal rule and revised medium-term plan; notes government has not submitted one
• Exposure to US tariffs is concentrated in pharma, medical devices, semicon, beverages; short-run employment impact limited

"The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council's pre-Budget 2026 statement warns the government against a large budget package of €9.4 billion, arguing the economy is performing strongly and does not need fiscal stimulus. It highlights that spending is regularly overrunning budget plans, with current spending already 6.1% higher than forecast. The Council criticizes the government for not setting a clear fiscal rule and for failing to submit a revised medium-term plan under EU requirements. It recommends a smaller budget package, prioritization of investment over current spending and tax cuts, and continued savings into the Future Ireland Fund."