Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warns of spending rule breach and corporation tax dependency (fiscalcouncil.ie)

• The National Spending Rule is projected to be breached every year out to 2026.
• Budget surpluses are sustained almost entirely by volatile corporation tax revenues.
• The Government lacks a multi-annual fiscal plan and has not submitted an updated Medium-Term Plan to the European Commission.

"The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council's November 2025 report warns the Government is set to breach the National Spending Rule every year through 2026. While headline surpluses persist, they rely heavily on volatile corporation tax receipts from a few large US firms. The share of corporation tax saved is planned to fall from 32% in 2025 to just 15% in 2026, leaving public finances exposed. The report criticises the lack of a multi-annual budgetary framework and the absence of an updated Medium-Term Plan submitted to the European Commission, urging a shift away from year-to-year budgeting."