Fiscal Assessment Report June 2024: IFAC Assesses Ireland’s Budgetary Policy and Compliance (fiscalcouncil.ie)

• IFAC warns Ireland’s economy at or above potential, loose fiscal policy risks overheating.
• Net spending breaches National Spending Rule by €8.5 billion cumulative above 5% path.
• Corporation tax heavily concentrated: 43% from 3 firms in 2022; risk of sudden reversal.

"The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) published its June 2024 Fiscal Assessment Report, evaluating the government’s SPU 2024. IFAC finds the Irish economy operating at or above potential, with a tight labour market. It warns that loose budgetary policy risks overheating. Net spending is repeatedly breaching the National Spending Rule, with a cumulative €8.5 billion above a 5% path by 2024. IFAC highlights corporation tax concentration, with 3 firms contributing 43% in 2022. It criticises fiscal gimmickry and calls for strengthening the fiscal framework, including longer-term forecasts and legislative basis for the spending rule. New EU fiscal rules are deemed inappropriate for Ireland."