Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin Q4 2024: Economy Above Potential, Infrastructure Constraints, and Fiscal Vulnerabilities (centralbank.ie)

• Domestic economy growing above potential, constraints on infrastructure investment
• Heavy reliance on corporation tax from US multinationals, only partial saving of windfall receipts
• Long-term per capita growth projected to halve to 1.4% by mid-century
• ECB cuts rates, Eurosystem operational framework transitioning to soft-floor
• Infrastructure bottlenecks in housing, energy, water, transport causing price pressures

"The Central Bank of Ireland's December 2024 Quarterly Bulletin reports that the domestic economy is growing steadily but above potential, leading to overheating risks. Infrastructure constraints in housing, energy, water, and transport are limiting sustainable growth. The public finances remain vulnerable due to heavy reliance on corporation tax from US multinationals, with risks from geoeconomic fragmentation and potential US policy changes. Long-term per capita growth projected to halve to 1.4% by mid-century due to demographics, requiring enhanced investment in human and physical capital and workforce participation."