Central Bank of Ireland warns of deficit risk from loss of excess corporation tax and urges tax base broadening (centralbank.ie)

• Losing excess corporation tax could turn a 2.3% surplus into a deficit exceeding 4% of GNI* by 2030 in a worst-case scenario.
• Public capital spending has tripled nominally but real capital stock relative to GNI* has been flat since 2021 due to inflation and delays.
• Long-term expenditure needs (ageing, housing, climate) require up to 6.5% of GNI* more by 2050, necessitating tax base broadening.

"The Central Bank of Ireland's analysis highlights risks to public finances from reliance on multinational corporation tax. A scenario losing all excess CT by 2030 could turn the budget surplus into a deficit of around 2% of GNI*, which could widen to over 4% if accompanied by weaker economic growth and lower MNE investment. Public investment to address infrastructure gaps is needed but must be managed carefully to avoid overheating at full employment. Long-term pressures from ageing, housing, and decarbonisation require broadening the tax base to reduce dependence on CT. Planning delays currently reduce the effectiveness of capital spending."