Central Bank of Ireland Projects Slower Long-Term Growth Due to Population Ageing, Migration, and Technology Transitions (centralbank.ie)

• Population ageing drives sharp slowdown in potential growth by 2050
• High migration mitigates but does not prevent decline in working-age population
• Delayed retirement and productivity gains from AI could partially offset slowdown

"The Central Bank of Ireland analyzes the long-term growth prospects of the Irish economy out to 2050. The baseline projection shows a marked slowdown in potential growth due to population ageing, with the working-age population peaking in 2045 and then declining even under high net migration. Sensitivity analysis indicates that lower migration would reduce annual average growth by about one-third from 2030 to 2050, while a later retirement age could boost labour supply. The impact of AI, digitalisation, and geoeconomic fragmentation is also assessed. The analysis uses a growth accounting framework."