Department of Finance report: Ireland's population could reach 6.77 million by 2065 under central migration scenario (assets.gov.ie)

• Central scenario: population 6.77m by 2065, labour force growth to 2047.
• Old-age dependency ratio to more than double from 23.1% to 55.2% by 2065, straining public finances.
• Without net migration, labour force would start declining from 2035; report recommends integrated data systems and contingency planning.

"This Department of Finance report, 'Future Forty: Ireland's Demographic Outlook', projects Ireland's population to 2065 under various migration and fertility scenarios. In the central scenario (net migration 35,000-40,000 per annum), population reaches 6.77 million by 2065, with labour force growth sustained until 2047. Without migration, the labour force would decline from 2035. The old-age dependency ratio is projected to rise from 23.1% in 2022 to 55.2% in 2065, increasing pressure on pensions, healthcare, and social services. The report uses a novel bottom-up methodology to model 22 migration categories and recommends integrated cross-departmental data systems and contingency planning for high migration scenarios."