Spring 2026 EU Economic Forecast: Growth slowdown and inflation surge from energy shock (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)

• EU GDP growth 2026: 1.1% (autumn forecast: 1.4%)
• EU inflation 2026: 3.1% (+1 pp from autumn)
• Energy shock: oil +65%, gas +50% from pre-conflict levels
• EU deficit: 3.1% (2025) to 3.6% (2027)
• Debt-to-GDP: 82.8% (2025) to 85.3% (2027)

"The European Commission published its Spring 2026 Economic Forecast on May 21, projecting EU GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026 (down from 1.5% in 2025), inflation rising to 3.1% (up 1 percentage point from autumn), and a widening deficit to 3.5% of GDP. The Middle East conflict caused a severe energy shock, with oil prices up 65% and gas 50%, disrupting global trade via the Strait of Hormuz."